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Predictions for 2008

I did not have a lot of predictions for what will happen with email at the beginning of the year so I did not do a traditional beginning of the year post. Over the last 3 – 4 weeks, though, I have noticed some things that I think show where the industry is going.
Authentication. In January two announcements happened that lead me to believe most legitimate mail will be DK/DKIM signed by the end of the year. AOTA announced that approximately 50% of all email was currently authenticated. They did not separate out SPF/SenderID authentication from DK/DKIM authentication, but this still suggests email authentication is being widely adopted. AOL announced they will be checking DKIM on their inbound mail. I expect more and more email will be DKIM signed in response to this announcement.
Filtering. The end of 2007 marked a steady uptick in mail being filtered or blocked by recipient domains. I expect this trend to continue throughout 2008. Recipient domains are rolling out new technology to measure complaints, evaluate reputation and monitor unwanted email in ways that tease out the bad actors from the good. This means more bad and borderline email will be blocked. Over the short term, I expect to see more good email blocked, too, but expect this will resolve itself by Q2/Q3.
Sender Improvements. As the ISPs get better at filtering, I expect that many borderline senders will discover they cannot continue to have sloppy subscription practices and still get their mail delivered. Improved authentication and better filtering let ISPs pin-point blocks. Instead of having to block by IP or by domain, they can block only some mail from a domain, or only some mail from an IP. There are a number of senders who are sending mail that users do not want mixed with mail that recipients do want. Right now, if there is more mail that recipients want in that mix, then ISPs let the mail through. This will not continue to happen through 2008. Senders will need to send mail users actively want in order to see good delivery.
Less is more. A lot of other email bloggers have talked about this, and I will echo their predictions. Less email is more. Send relevant mail that your customers want. Target, target, target. Good mailers will not send offers to their entire database, instead they will send mail to a select portion of their database.
Feedback loops. Use of feedback loops by recipient domains will continue to grow.
Mobile email. More recipients will be receiving email on mobile devices.
Suggestions for 2008

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SenderScore Certified expands

ReturnPath announced yesterday that SenderScore Certified now covers 1.2 billion inboxes, including mail handled by Hotmail, Time Warner Cable, GoDaddy and eventually Yahoo. A number of filters are also using SSC, including Spam Assassin, IronPort Systems, Barracuda Networks and Cloudmark.

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e360… AGAIN

This time e360 is in court suing a number of individuals for calling him a spammer.
Mickey has docs up on SpamSuite.com and Ken Magill has written about it as well.
Dave has also responded to ReturnPath, through Ken, with a public letter explaining why his statement disagrees with ReturnPath’s statement about his acceptance into the SenderScore Certified program.
Rumor has it that Dave is claiming he is out of money. If that’s true, who is funding these cases?

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Comcast rate limiting

Russell from Port25 posted a comment on my earlier post about changes at Comcast.

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AOL checking DKIM

Sources tell me that AOL announced on yesterday’s ESPC call that they are now, and have been for about a week, checking DKIM inbound. This fits with a conversation I had with one of the AOL delivery team a month or so back where they were asking me about what senders would be most concerned about when / if AOL started using DKIM.
The other announcement is that AOL, like Yahoo, would like to know how you categorize your outgoing mail stream as part of the whitelisting process.
Both of these changes indicate to me that AOL will be improving the granularity of their filtering scheme. DKIM signing will let them separate out different domains and different reputations across a single sending IP address. The categorization will allow AOL to evaluate sender statistics within the context of the specific type of email. Transactional mail can have different statistics from newsletters from marketing mail. Better granularity means that poor senders will be less able to hide behind good senders. I expect to hear some wailing and gnashing of teeth about this change, but as time goes on senders will clean up their stats and their policies and, as a consequence will see their delivery improve everywhere, not just AOL.

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Update on Yahoo and the PBL

Last week I requested details about Yahoo rejections for IPs pointing to the PBL when the IP was not on the PBL. A blog reader did provide me with extremely useful logs documenting the problem. Thank you!
Based on my examination of the logs, this appears to be a problem only on some of the Yahoo! MXs. In fact, in the logs I was sent, the email was rejected from 2 machines and then eventually accepted by a third.
I have forwarded those logs onto Yahoo who are looking into the issue. I have also talked with one of the Spamhaus volunteers and Spamhaus is aware of the issue as well.
The right people are looking at the issue and Spamhaus and Yahoo are both working on fixing this.
Thanks for the reports and for the logs.

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e360 in court again

Today’s edition of Magilla Marketing announced that Dave Linhardt and e360 have sued Comcast. Spamsuite.com has the text of the complaint up.
On the surface this seems quite silly. e360 is alleging a number of things, including that Comcast is committing a denial of service attack against e360 and locking up e360’s servers for more than 5 hours. Additionally, e360 is laying blame at the feet of multiple spam filtering companies, including Spamhaus, Trend Micro and Brightmail.
One of the more absurd claims is that Comcast is fraudulently transmitting ‘user unknown’ messages. At no point do they explain how or why they think this is the case, but simply assert:

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AOL and AIM mail

Earlier this week a question came up on a mailing list. The questioner recently started seeing an increase in rejections to @aol.com addresses. These rejections said

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Why do ISPs limit emails per connection?

A few years ago it was “common knowledge” that if you were sending large amounts of email to an ISP the most polite way to do that, the way that would put the least load on the receiving mailserver, was to open a single SMTP session to the mailserver and then to send all the mail for that ISP down that single connection.
That’s because the receiving mailserver is concerned about two main resources when handling inbound email – the pool of “slots” assigned one per inbound SMTP session, and the bandwidth (network and disk, and related resouces such as memory and CPU) consumed by the inbound mail – and this approach means the sender only uses one slot, and it allows the receiving mailserver to control the bandwidth used simply by accepting data on that one connection at a given rate. It also amortizes all the connection setup costs over multiple emails. It’s a beautiful thing – it just doesn’t get any more efficient than that.
That seems perfect for the receiving ISP – but ISPs don’t encourage bulk senders to do this. Instead many of them have been moving from “one connection, lots of mail through it” to “multiple connections, a few messages through each”. They’re even limiting the number of deliveries permitted over a single connection. Why would that be?
The reason for this is driven by three things. One is that the number of simultaneous inbound SMTP sessions that a mailserver can handle is quite tightly limited by the architecture of most mailservers. Another is that the amount of mail that’s being sent to large ISP mailservers keeps going up and up – so there are sometimes more inbound SMTP sessions asking for access than the mailserver can handle. The third is that ISPs know that there are different categories of email being sent to their users – 1:1 mail from their friends that they want to see as soon as possible, wanted bulk mail that their users want to see when it arrives and spam; lots and lots of spam.
So ISPs want to be able to do things like accept 1:1 mail all the time, while deferring bulk mail and spam to allow them to shed traffic at times of peak load. But they can only make decisions about whether to accept or defer delivery in an efficient way at SMTP connection time – they pick and choose amongst the horde of inbound connection attempts to prioritize some and defer others, letting them keep within the number of inbound sessions that they can handle simultaneously.
But once the ISP lets a bulk mailer connect to deliver their mail, they lose most of the ability to further control that delivery as the sender might send thousands of emails down that connection. (Even if the ISP has the ability to throttle bandwidth – as some do to control obvious spam – that just means that the sender would tie up an expensive inbound delivery slot for longer).
So, in order to allow them to prioritize inbound connections effectively the ISP needs to terminate the session after a few deliveries, and then make that sender start competing with other senders for a connection again.
So ISPs aren’t limiting the number of deliveries per SMTP connection to make things difficult for senders, or because they don’t understand how mail works. They’re doing it because that lets them prioritize wanted email to their users. The same is true when they defer your mail with a 4xx response.
It might be annoying to have to deal with these limits on delivery, but for legitimate bulk mail senders all this throttling and prioritization is a good thing. Your mail may be given less priority than 1:1 mail – but, if you maintain a good reputation, you’re given higher priority than all the spam, higher priority than all the email borne viruses, higher priority than all the junk email, higher priority than the 419 spams. And higher priority than mail from those of your competitors who have a worse reputation than yours.

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PBL and Yahoo

A few days ago I posted about Yahoo using the Spamhaus lists. In the comments of that post there have been multiple reports of mail being bounced from Yahoo with a reason of “on the PBL” but the IP was not on the PBL.
I am happy to look into this for people. I’m sure neither Spamhaus nor Yahoo want to be incorrectly rejecting email. To do this, though, I need the rejection message from Yahoo, the IP the mail was sent from and when it happened. Feel free to email the information to laura at wordtothewise.com.

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