Unauthenticated email

A few weeks ago, NetworkWorld posted an interview with Mark Risher of Yahoo. In it, Mark talked about how Yahoo had no plans to outright block or refuse any unauthenticated email. Of course authentication will be a large part of their decision making for incoming emails but they cannot just refuse to accept mail that is unauthenticated, because there are times when unauthenticated email is the most important mail to their recipients.
A lot of marketers often seem to forget that they are competing for time and space with other, non-marketing, types of email. Email from friends and family and discussion lists are both more important to most people that the latest and greatest email advertisement. These are the emails people want to receive, the ones they open, read and respond to.
In terms of authentication, right now the majority of wanted emails are unsigned with DK or DKIM.  Sure there are the early adopters who are using DK/DKIM to sign their emails, and a few large ISPs have started signing outgoing email. But until the vast majority of wanted email is actually signed, recipient ISPs are going to have to accept unsigned email.
Looking forward, even if all of the ISPs sign email sent through their SMTP servers, there will still be some fraction of desired email that will be unsigned. Individuals and small businesses who choose to run their own mailservers may not sign email. Even though these servers make up a tiny fraction of total email, they make up a much larger fraction of wanted email. ISPs cannot block this email without angering their customer base.
Marketers should not be concerned about ISPs blocking unauthenticated email, as it is extremely unlikely that any major ISP will do that. Marketers should focus, instead on making their email relevant and wanted by the recipients. I have been recommending clients plan to have all their outgoing emails DK/DKIM signed by the end of 2008.

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Predictions for 2008

I did not have a lot of predictions for what will happen with email at the beginning of the year so I did not do a traditional beginning of the year post. Over the last 3 – 4 weeks, though, I have noticed some things that I think show where the industry is going.
Authentication. In January two announcements happened that lead me to believe most legitimate mail will be DK/DKIM signed by the end of the year. AOTA announced that approximately 50% of all email was currently authenticated. They did not separate out SPF/SenderID authentication from DK/DKIM authentication, but this still suggests email authentication is being widely adopted. AOL announced they will be checking DKIM on their inbound mail. I expect more and more email will be DKIM signed in response to this announcement.
Filtering. The end of 2007 marked a steady uptick in mail being filtered or blocked by recipient domains. I expect this trend to continue throughout 2008. Recipient domains are rolling out new technology to measure complaints, evaluate reputation and monitor unwanted email in ways that tease out the bad actors from the good. This means more bad and borderline email will be blocked. Over the short term, I expect to see more good email blocked, too, but expect this will resolve itself by Q2/Q3.
Sender Improvements. As the ISPs get better at filtering, I expect that many borderline senders will discover they cannot continue to have sloppy subscription practices and still get their mail delivered. Improved authentication and better filtering let ISPs pin-point blocks. Instead of having to block by IP or by domain, they can block only some mail from a domain, or only some mail from an IP. There are a number of senders who are sending mail that users do not want mixed with mail that recipients do want. Right now, if there is more mail that recipients want in that mix, then ISPs let the mail through. This will not continue to happen through 2008. Senders will need to send mail users actively want in order to see good delivery.
Less is more. A lot of other email bloggers have talked about this, and I will echo their predictions. Less email is more. Send relevant mail that your customers want. Target, target, target. Good mailers will not send offers to their entire database, instead they will send mail to a select portion of their database.
Feedback loops. Use of feedback loops by recipient domains will continue to grow.
Mobile email. More recipients will be receiving email on mobile devices.
Suggestions for 2008

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Comcast rate limiting

Russell from Port25 posted a comment on my earlier post about changes at Comcast.

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Articles I read today

It has been a rather busy day today, I do not have a full blog post. I did see a couple posts come across my RSS feeds. Both of them have content I want to talk about and discuss in a little more detail, as I think they touched on some very interesting issues.
Network World has an article interviewing Mark Risher from Yahoo. The article discusses Yahoo’s use of DomainKeys as part of their inbound mail filtering.
Mickey has an article about how to deal with ISPs when attempting to troubleshoot a blocking issue.
More details and commentary on both articles later this week.

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