Predictions for 2008

I did not have a lot of predictions for what will happen with email at the beginning of the year so I did not do a traditional beginning of the year post. Over the last 3 – 4 weeks, though, I have noticed some things that I think show where the industry is going.
Authentication. In January two announcements happened that lead me to believe most legitimate mail will be DK/DKIM signed by the end of the year. AOTA announced that approximately 50% of all email was currently authenticated. They did not separate out SPF/SenderID authentication from DK/DKIM authentication, but this still suggests email authentication is being widely adopted. AOL announced they will be checking DKIM on their inbound mail. I expect more and more email will be DKIM signed in response to this announcement.
Filtering. The end of 2007 marked a steady uptick in mail being filtered or blocked by recipient domains. I expect this trend to continue throughout 2008. Recipient domains are rolling out new technology to measure complaints, evaluate reputation and monitor unwanted email in ways that tease out the bad actors from the good. This means more bad and borderline email will be blocked. Over the short term, I expect to see more good email blocked, too, but expect this will resolve itself by Q2/Q3.
Sender Improvements. As the ISPs get better at filtering, I expect that many borderline senders will discover they cannot continue to have sloppy subscription practices and still get their mail delivered. Improved authentication and better filtering let ISPs pin-point blocks. Instead of having to block by IP or by domain, they can block only some mail from a domain, or only some mail from an IP. There are a number of senders who are sending mail that users do not want mixed with mail that recipients do want. Right now, if there is more mail that recipients want in that mix, then ISPs let the mail through. This will not continue to happen through 2008. Senders will need to send mail users actively want in order to see good delivery.
Less is more. A lot of other email bloggers have talked about this, and I will echo their predictions. Less email is more. Send relevant mail that your customers want. Target, target, target. Good mailers will not send offers to their entire database, instead they will send mail to a select portion of their database.
Feedback loops. Use of feedback loops by recipient domains will continue to grow.
Mobile email. More recipients will be receiving email on mobile devices.
Suggestions for 2008

  1. If you are not signing mail with DKIM, you should plan to by the end of the year.
  2. Review your privacy practices, and your signup process before then end of Q1. Specifically look at things from a user and a use-ability perspective. If this was not your company, would you still sign up here?
  3. Sign up for your own mailing list. See how much email your recipients are receiving. What user experience are you treating them to?
  4. Monitor your bounces and rejections. Generate reports so you know where your mail is not being delivered and why.

Overall, I expect to see a lot of consolidation, emphasis on good practice and tighter filtering. I think the first half of 2008 is going to be challenging for marketers, as what worked in the past is not going to work in the future. Mailers are going to be held to a much higher standard in the past and are going to find it more difficult to hide bad mail in a stream of mostly good mail.

Related Posts

Blogroll

I added a few blogs to my blogroll today.
Terry Zink works at Microsoft handling spam blocking issues for one of their platforms. His posts offer insight into how recipient administrators view spam filtering. He has a long, information dense series of posts on email authentication.
E-mail, tech policy, and more is written by John Levine, a general expert on almost everything internet, especially spam and abuse issues. He posts somewhat irregularly about interesting things he sees and hears about spam, abuse, internet law and other things.
Justin Mason’s blog contains information from the primary SpamAssassin developer. Like Terry’s blog, it gives readers some insight into the thought process of people creating filters.
Al Iverson’s blogs have been on my blogroll for a while now. His DNSBL resource contains information about various DNSBL and how they work against a single, well defined mail stream. His spam resource blog provides information about delivery and email marketing from someone who has been in the industry as long as I have.
Email Karma is Matt Verhout’s blog and contains a lot of useful delivery information.
No man is an iland provides practical information on marketing by email. Some of the information is delivery related, a lot more of it is solid marketing information. Mark often points to useful studies and information posted around the net.
MonkeyBrains has always entertaining and informative articles about delivery, email marketing and practical ways to make your email marketing more effective.

Read More

Greylisting: that which Yahoo does not do

Over the last couple days multiple people have asserted to me that Yahoo is greylisting mail. The fact that Yahoo itself asserts it is not using greylisting as a technique to control mail seems to have no effect on the number of people who believe that Yahoo is greylisting.
Deeply held beliefs by many senders aside, Yahoo is not greylisting. Yahoo is using temporary failures (4xx) as a way to defer and control mail coming into their servers and their users.
I think much of the problem is that the definition of greylisting is not well understood by the people using the term. Greylisting generally refers to a process of refusing email with a 4xx response the first time delivery is attempted and accepting the email at the second delivery attempt. There are a number of ways to greylist, per message, per IP or per from address. The defining feature of greylisting is that the receiving MTA keeps track of the messages (IP or addresss) that it has rejected and allows the mail through the second time the mail is sent.
This technique for handling email is a direct response to some spamming software, particularly software that uses infected Windows machines to send email. The spam software will drop any email in response to a 4xx or 5xx response. Well designed software will retry any email receiving a 4xx response. By rejecting anything on the first attempt with a 4xx, the receiving ISPs can trivially block mail from spambots.
Where does this fit in with what Yahoo is doing? Yahoo is not keeping track of the mail it rejects and is not reliably allowing email through on the second attempt. There are a couple reasons why Yahoo is deferring mail.

Read More

SenderScore update

Matt has posted a bit more about the SenderScore Blacklist, following up on my post about the changes at Comcast. George Bilbrey, VP and General Manager, for Return Path followed up with him to explain a bit more about the blacklist. George says:

Read More